Important dates:
(purple dashed lines) May 14: Stay-at-Home reversed; May 25: Memorial Day; July 4: Independence Day
(blue dashed lines) March 25: Stay-at-Home order; Aug 1: WI mask mandate
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Estimated Active, split by Age group:
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 03 2020 | 2100 | 23296 | 63 | 7 | 397 | 573 |
| October 04 2020 | 2123 | 23391 | 65 | 7 | 389 | 537 |
| October 05 2020 | 2152 | 23394 | 68 | 7 | 376 | 535 |
| October 06 2020 | 2184 | 23558 | 69 | 7 | 344 | 534 |
| October 07 2020 | 2211 | 24159 | 69 | 8 | 324 | 508 |
| October 08 2020 | 2264 | 24352 | 71 | 8 | 324 | 530 |
| October 09 2020 | 2308 | 24857 | 72 | 8 | 339 | 532 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 1.0 | 3.5% | 12 | 0.1% | 22 | 0.19% |
| 10-19 | 9 | 6.0 | 17.7% | 60 | 0.44% | 84 | 0.62% |
| 20-29 | 11 | 8.0 | 25.1% | 85 | 0.41% | 145 | 0.69% |
| 30-39 | 5 | 4.6 | 11.8% | 40 | 0.29% | 74 | 0.54% |
| 40-49 | 7 | 4.9 | 12.1% | 41 | 0.39% | 54 | 0.52% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 4.9 | 14.5% | 49 | 0.39% | 73 | 0.58% |
| 60-69 | 6 | 3.9 | 9.7% | 33 | 0.29% | 53 | 0.46% |
| 70+ | 1 | 2.6 | 5.6% | 19 | 0.18% | 29 | 0.28% |
| All ages | 44 | 35.7 | 100% | 339 | 0.32% | 532 | 0.51% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 03 2020 | 630 | 15327 | 25 | 0 | 141 | 164 |
| October 04 2020 | 641 | 15413 | 26 | 0 | 143 | 165 |
| October 05 2020 | 649 | 15501 | 27 | 0 | 132 | 169 |
| October 06 2020 | 667 | 15620 | 30 | 0 | 145 | 185 |
| October 07 2020 | 698 | 15761 | 29 | 0 | 152 | 209 |
| October 08 2020 | 730 | 15930 | 30 | 0 | 175 | 232 |
| October 09 2020 | 763 | 16066 | 30 | 0 | 196 | 246 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.9 | 5.6% | 11 | 0.14% | 13 | 0.17% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 0.7 | 4.6% | 9 | 0.11% | 12 | 0.14% |
| 20-29 | 6 | 2.9 | 11.7% | 23 | 0.32% | 34 | 0.48% |
| 30-39 | 5 | 4.0 | 17.3% | 34 | 0.4% | 44 | 0.52% |
| 40-49 | 7 | 3.4 | 14.3% | 28 | 0.36% | 31 | 0.4% |
| 50-59 | 5 | 4.0 | 17.9% | 35 | 0.36% | 45 | 0.46% |
| 60-69 | 7 | 2.9 | 11.7% | 23 | 0.27% | 29 | 0.35% |
| 70+ | 3 | 2.9 | 15.3% | 30 | 0.42% | 34 | 0.48% |
| All ages | 33 | 21.9 | 100% | 196 | 0.3% | 246 | 0.38% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 03 2020 | 516 | 9140 | 24 | 6 | 91 | 105 |
| October 04 2020 | 522 | 9143 | 24 | 6 | 85 | 102 |
| October 05 2020 | 522 | 9150 | 24 | 6 | 78 | 102 |
| October 06 2020 | 528 | 9157 | 26 | 6 | 72 | 106 |
| October 07 2020 | 535 | 9161 | 28 | 6 | 69 | 110 |
| October 08 2020 | 553 | 9194 | 28 | 6 | 75 | 116 |
| October 09 2020 | 575 | 9300 | 28 | 6 | 93 | 131 |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 03 2020 | 3284 | 26591 | 54 | 4 | 499 | 809 |
| October 04 2020 | 3299 | 26653 | 55 | 4 | 461 | 731 |
| October 05 2020 | 3336 | 26669 | 55 | 4 | 390 | 714 |
| October 06 2020 | 3373 | 26864 | 55 | 6 | 383 | 675 |
| October 07 2020 | 3399 | 27309 | 58 | 8 | 352 | 614 |
| October 08 2020 | 3441 | 28170 | 59 | 8 | 386 | 603 |
| October 09 2020 | 3486 | 28692 | 60 | 8 | 391 | 540 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 0.6 | 1.3% | 5 | 0.04% | 7 | 0.06% |
| 10-19 | 3 | 5.4 | 17.1% | 67 | 0.4% | 106 | 0.64% |
| 20-29 | 12 | 9.6 | 26.9% | 105 | 0.49% | 165 | 0.78% |
| 30-39 | 2 | 3.3 | 10.2% | 40 | 0.29% | 57 | 0.42% |
| 40-49 | 5 | 2.7 | 9.2% | 36 | 0.26% | 39 | 0.29% |
| 50-59 | 8 | 3.7 | 11.8% | 46 | 0.32% | 59 | 0.42% |
| 60-69 | 7 | 4.0 | 11.5% | 45 | 0.32% | 51 | 0.36% |
| 70+ | 6 | 5.1 | 12% | 47 | 0.36% | 56 | 0.43% |
| All ages | 45 | 34.4 | 100% | 391 | 0.33% | 540 | 0.46% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 03 2020 | 10339 | 201164 | 384 | 43 | 1299 | 1704 |
| October 04 2020 | 10452 | 201238 | 386 | 43 | 1249 | 1637 |
| October 05 2020 | 10514 | 201655 | 387 | 43 | 1169 | 1619 |
| October 06 2020 | 10671 | 203188 | 393 | 43 | 1183 | 1724 |
| October 07 2020 | 10734 | 204606 | 400 | 43 | 1127 | 1694 |
| October 08 2020 | 10841 | 206251 | 405 | 43 | 1078 | 1638 |
| October 09 2020 | 11035 | 207665 | 417 | 43 | 1178 | 1690 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 8 | 6.0 | 5.1% | 60 | 0.1% | 71 | 0.12% |
| 10-19 | 32 | 17.3 | 14.7% | 173 | 0.24% | 289 | 0.41% |
| 20-29 | 47 | 26.4 | 22.9% | 270 | 0.26% | 413 | 0.4% |
| 30-39 | 29 | 16.7 | 16% | 188 | 0.25% | 272 | 0.36% |
| 40-49 | 25 | 15.9 | 13.4% | 158 | 0.24% | 202 | 0.31% |
| 50-59 | 22 | 15.4 | 13.7% | 161 | 0.25% | 222 | 0.34% |
| 60-69 | 17 | 11.1 | 8.3% | 98 | 0.18% | 134 | 0.25% |
| 70+ | 14 | 8.0 | 5.9% | 70 | 0.14% | 87 | 0.18% |
| All ages | 194 | 116.9 | 100% | 1178 | 0.22% | 1690 | 0.31% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 03 2020 | 130798 | 1456763 | 7588 | 1372 | 24866 | 31236 |
| October 04 2020 | 132663 | 1465713 | 7646 | 1377 | 24339 | 31436 |
| October 05 2020 | 134359 | 1472577 | 7702 | 1381 | 23531 | 31861 |
| October 06 2020 | 136379 | 1482116 | 7810 | 1399 | 22734 | 32209 |
| October 07 2020 | 138698 | 1493304 | 7951 | 1415 | 22836 | 32766 |
| October 08 2020 | 141830 | 1506828 | 8061 | 1424 | 24242 | 33506 |
| October 09 2020 | 144818 | 1518662 | 8199 | 1440 | 24863 | 33990 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 95 | 78.6 | 3.2% | 805 | 0.13% | 1097 | 0.17% |
| 10-19 | 254 | 218.7 | 9.7% | 2410 | 0.32% | 3523 | 0.47% |
| 20-29 | 561 | 429.1 | 18% | 4479 | 0.59% | 6455 | 0.85% |
| 30-39 | 492 | 381.1 | 15.5% | 3850 | 0.51% | 5281 | 0.7% |
| 40-49 | 450 | 370.4 | 15.2% | 3779 | 0.54% | 5005 | 0.72% |
| 50-59 | 471 | 400.9 | 16.7% | 4156 | 0.51% | 5603 | 0.69% |
| 60-69 | 372 | 304.6 | 12.3% | 3046 | 0.4% | 3998 | 0.53% |
| 70+ | 293 | 232.6 | 9.4% | 2338 | 0.37% | 3028 | 0.47% |
| All ages | 2988 | 2416.0 | 100% | 24863 | 0.43% | 33990 | 0.58% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50.8 | 61.7 | 69.3 | 35.7 | 46.1 | 12.6% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 21.9 | 10.7 | 14.6% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 10.1 | 8.3 | 25.5% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45.7 | 64 | 77.5 | 34.4 | 61.9 | 9.3% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30.9 | 40.7 | 39.8 | 116.9 | 124 | 10.2% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 58.4 | 46.5 | 85.3 | 2416 | 2155.7 | 18.8% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 19.5 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.37 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-10-30 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 1582"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges